Private Equity:
2026 Outlook

What to watch in private equity in 2026
- Long-awaited green shoots are emerging in exit markets – much to the relief of private equity GPs and LPs.
- Even if exit markets rally, there will be no going back to “business as usual” for the asset class.
- Continuation vehicles and non-institutional investment have become established parts of the industry and are reshaping how GPs invest and operate.
- GPs are eager to seize these new opportunities but will have to level up operational models in order to do so effectively.

Elliott Brown
Global Head of Private Equity
Private equity at an inflection point
After a prolonged period of stalled exits, cautious capital deployment, and repeated false dawns, private equity enters 2026 at a genuine inflection point. Exit markets are reopening and deal momentum is building, but the next phase of the cycle will not mark a return to the pre-2022 status quo. Instead, structural shifts in liquidity options, fundraising dynamics, and investor composition are reshaping the contours of the asset class. For general partners, success in 2026 will hinge not simply on a market rebound, but on adapting to a permanently changed private markets landscape.
A reopening market — and a redefined industry
After a long wait and many false starts, private equity GPs are quietly optimistic that 2026 could be the year deal activity finally cranks back into gear.
In recent years GPs have grown weary of predictions of upcoming “waves of M&A” that never materialize, but as the industry moves into a New Year, forecasts of a ramp up in buyout and exit activity feel more real.
Momentum has already been building rolling into 2026, with Q3 2025 global buyout deal value posting the best quarterly figures since the 2021 market peak. Global IPO markets are also simmering, with J.P.Morgan anticipating that up to a third of IPO activity in 2026 could involve private equity sponsors.
Leveraged finance bankers, meanwhile, are betting big on a buyout bounce, having underwritten close US$65 billion of debt to finance big ticket buyouts in 2026, according to Bloomberg.
Exits are back on
The reopening of the IPO window and a reenergized M&A market will offer private equity sponsors with a long-awaited opportunity to exit assets held for much longer than expected.
Global exit value was already up more than 80 percent year-on-year through the first nine months of 2025, and fully functioning IPO and M&A markets bode well for further gains in exit value in 2026.
A meaningful increase in exits can’t come soon enough for managers, who are sitting on 31,764 unsold assets, according to Ropes & Gray figures.
Clearing this backlog will be essential for a recovery in fundraising, which plumbed five-year lows for the Q1-Q3 period in 2025, according to PEI data.
Increasing distributions will help to clear liquidity bottlenecks and put fundraising timetables back on track in 2026. The good news is that 2025 may represent the bottom of the fundraising cycle, with fundraising moving into recovery mode in 2026, according to Cambridge Associates.
GPs may have heard it all before, but this time optimistic expectations do appear to be grounded in a degree of substance.
A new-look industry
But even if the mainstream portfolio company exit sluice gates do open up in 2026, there will be no going back to “business as usual” for private equity managers in the year ahead.
The cycle of rising interests and the associated exit logjam of recent years have changed the way the industry works for the long-term. The alternative liquidity routes managers and their advisers have devised and refined in recent years have become part of the industry establishment. GPs are not going to mothball these tools – even if IPO and M&A volumes bounce back beyond expectations.
Continuation vehicles (CVs), for example, now represent around a fifth of private equity distributions to LPs, and are not only a liquidity solution for downcycles, but a channel for retaining exposure to crown jewel assets through longer hold periods. Indeed, asset manager Schroders sees CVs potentially replacing sponsor-to-sponsor secondary buyouts in some scenarios.
For LPs, who will be invested across multiple funds and managers, a CV deal makes sense if the alternative is a secondary buyout sale to a fund that is also in an LP’s portfolio. For GPs with funds that are maturing, a CV allows them to hold onto prized companies, extend proven investment and portfolio management theses, and bring in capital and liquidity without having to sell to another private equity firm.
Private equity firms that haven’t yet implemented CV deals will have to start selecting some assets for CVs in the future. Managers that have executed CVs, meanwhile, will almost certainly do so again.
Increased use of CV funds is also bringing increased scrutiny. A recent New York Times analysis has highlighted growing investor focus on valuation transparency, governance and alignment in continuation vehicle transactions.
Just as exit options have evolved, so has fundraising. Non-institutional investment in private equity has well and truly arrived and will keep on growing in the next 12 months. A financial adviser survey led by private markets manager Adams Street found that more than two-thirds of respondents expected the percentage of their clients invested in private markets to increase during the next three years, while Bain & Co predicts that non-institutional capital will be one of the major drivers for private markets assets under management (AUM) growth during the decade to 2032.
Global themes. Regional nuances.
The overarching themes of an improving exit outlook, alternative liquidity options, and non-institutional capital will carry across all key private equity jurisdictions in 2026, but regional differences are also set to emerge. In the US, three interest rate cuts in 2025, a boom in AI-investment, buoyant stock markets, and highly supportive debt financing markets will put the US to retain its position as the most dynamic and active private equity market globally.
Europe also enters 2026 on the front foot. Inflation has stabilized and interest rates have come down, positioning private equity firms active in the region to build on the steady year-on-year gains in buyout and exit value posted in 2025. Europe, however, is not running as hot as the US market. Low growth and weak productivity are long-term issues that Europe is still grappling with.
Shifts in domestic policy in the US, however, have positioned Europe as a good option for private markets investors seeking to diversify US exposures. European leveraged buyouts have also consistently traded at lower multiples than in the US in recent years, according to CVC, providing ongoing attractive relative value for dealmakers.
Asian private equity dealmaking and fundraising, meanwhile, is set to take on a more domestic hue, with deal activity shaped by specific themes in local markets.
In the key China market, for example, which has had to navigate less predictable US-China relations in 2025, local Chinese firms and pan-regional funds look set to drive activity and take advantage of very strong IPO markets for exits and attractive entry multiples on new deals.
Japan, by contrast, is expected to see sustained interest from global players as corporate reform sees large Japanese conglomerates unbundle non-core assets and streamline operations, filling the pipeline of prospective carve-out deal opportunities.
A buoyant IPO market in India, supported by local pools of capital, meanwhile, is set to continue supporting a positive backdrop for private equity exits, which climbed to close to US$20 billion through the first nine months of 2025 – ranking 2025 as the second-best year for India exit value with a quarter of the year still to go.
Adapting to change
A wider range of exit options and the rise of non-institutional investment in private markets will demand that managers across all jurisdictions lay down new rails to run their businesses.
In addition to managing close-ended institutional funds, private equity firms will also have to operate the evergreen fund structures that continue to gain popularity as a conduit for private wealth into private equity. This will come with additional reporting obligations, the publication of more regular NAV marks, and the monitoring of liquidity sleeves. Managers will also increasingly be expected to update LPs in institutional funds about how investment resources and deals are allocated between institutional and evergreen funds. Adams Street notes that the number of evergreen funds doubled to 520 vehicles in the five years to the end of 2024. Private equity operations will have to be primed to respond to this growth.
LP expectations around the granularity and frequency in investor reporting will also see a broader step change in the year ahead. A Ropes & Gray industry survey of European LPs and GPs, for example, found that more than a third of LPs (36.6%) see transparency and reporting, and insufficient or delayed data sharing and communication, as the biggest source of tension in LP and GP relationships. In an increasingly competitive market, GPs will have to step up and address these concerns.
As a new dawn beckons for the private equity industry in 2026 – laying the necessary operational foundations will be essential for seizing the opportunity.
Conclusion
Private equity enters 2026 at a genuine turning point. Exit markets are reopening, liquidity options have broadened, and new sources of capital are reshaping the industry’s growth trajectory. Yet this is not a cyclical reset to old norms. Structural changes in exits, fundraising, investor composition, and fund structures are now firmly embedded in the private markets ecosystem.
For GPs, success in the year ahead will depend not only on capturing renewed deal and exit momentum, but also on evolving operating models, governance frameworks, and reporting capabilities to meet higher investor expectations. Those firms that adapt early and invest in scalable, resilient infrastructure will be bets positioned to convert improving market conditions into durable long-term advantage.
Private Credit:
2026 Outlook

What to watch in private credit in 2026
- After an extended run of growth, 2026 will be one of change and evolution for private credit.
- Geographic expansion will be on the cards as firms move to grow their businesses and lock in the best possible risk-adjusted returns.
- Increasing competition will see private debt firms launch new product lines –with asset-based finance a natural area to step into.
- Upgrading operational models will be a priority as private debt players broaden out platforms into new regions and investment strategies.

Jessica Mead
Global Head of Private Credit
Private credit enters a more competitive phase
After a prolonged period of rapid expansion, private debt enters 2026 from a position of strength, but into a more demanding operating environment. The asset class remains well capitalized, institutionally embedded, and attractive to investors seeking resilient income, yet the conditions that powered recent outperformance are beginning to evolve. As interest rates ease, competition intensifies, and deal dynamics shift, private credit managers will need to adapt their strategies, geographic focus, and operating models to sustain performance in the year ahead.
From growth tailwinds to competitive pressure
The private debt market has been on a good run and enters 2026 well-capitalized and full of confidence.
For the last ten years private credit assets under management (AUM) have grown at around 15% a year and the asset class has delivered better returns than syndicated loans, high yield bonds, and investment grade debt, according to J.P. Morgan. There has certainly been much for the private debt community to celebrate – but 2026 will bring new challenges.
No time for complacency
As strong and well-positioned as private debt managers are going into the New Year, this is no time for the industry to rest on its laurels.
In 2026 managers will be operating in a different market. Interest rates in the US, Europe, and UK have come down during last 12 months, and just as higher base rates benefitted the floating rate structures of private credit loans, falling rates will mean lower coupons.
Coupons will also be squeezed as margins narrow in the face of increasing competition for deals. Patchy M&A has constrained the supply for new financing opportunities, and when transactions have come to market, competition has been fierce.
M&A markets are expected to improve, but it will take time to bring the supply of deal financing back in balance with demand. Until then, private credit managers will have to keep narrowing margins, offering higher leverage multiples, and loosening covenants to remain competitive.
The asset class will continue to present attractive risk-adjusted returns for investors in 2026, but overall returns are expected to temper in a more crowded market.
Horizons new
Moving into new geographies will be one way that private credit managers respond to shifting industry dynamics.
North America is by far the largest private credit market in the world, with AUM of around US$1.5 trillion, according to Barings. It is twice the size of the European market and multiples bigger than the APAC market.
As the biggest private credit ecosystem, North America is also the most mature and competitive, and it has been an obvious move for managers to look to new jurisdictions to grow their businesses and secure optimal returns.
Europe, for example, has offered private debt providers with wider margins, lower leverage multiples and more lender friendly covenants than in the US. Private debt lenders have been able to leverage country-specific know how to price their debt at higher spreads and on better terms in a European market that – unlike the US – is still characterized by a patchwork of country-specific regulation and legal frameworks.
The APAC market, meanwhile, is at the start of a long-term growth trajectory, with Barings noting that bank credit still accounts for more than 70% of credit provision in the region, versus just 32% in the US and 50% in Europe.
Over time, however, APAC is expected to see private credit market share increase as more global private equity sponsors, who are familiar with the private credit offering, pursue more Asian deals.
Private credit managers and investors will be looking at ways to broaden their regional exposure and take advantage of the attractive pricing and growth dynamics beyond the core US market.
Asset-based finance to the fore
The other main lever that private debt managers will pull in response to intensifying competition in direct lending will be to launch new products.
Asset-based finance (ABF), an umbrella term for lending secured against a specific pool of assets, rather than borrower cashflows, has been a popular option for private debt firms expanding their platforms. The ABF market is also on the LP agenda, with analysis from law firm Macfarlanes reporting a growing number of LPs with ABF investment mandates.
The ABF market is worth around US$6 trillion and is forecast to expand by 50% to reach US$9.2 trillion by 2029, according to KKR. This presents a vast addressable market for private debt firms to grow into, as well as a wide selection of different asset pools to invest behind, ranging from credit card and auto loans through to aircraft leases, accounts receivable and royalties, to name but a few.
Private debt firms will be scouring the ABF market in increasing numbers in 2026 as they seek out opportunities to expand their franchises.
Fit for purpose
A priority for managers with ambitions to launch into new geographies, or branch out into ABF, will be to ensure that their organizations have the required operational muscle to support these new strategic objectives.
Expanding into Europe or APAC, for instance, will require support on the ground in these markets to steer through legal, regulatory, reporting and commercial nuances. When launching an ABF strategy, the operational ask will be even bigger. Private credit firms will have to build new infrastructure to monitor asset registers, review asset valuations, service collateral, model downside exit scenarios and manage credit risk.
Private credit players will seek to break new ground in 2026 – they will have to have the right back-office frameworks in place to realize the opportunities that lie ahead.
Conclusion
Private debt remains a compelling component of institutional portfolios as it enters 2026 but the next phase of growth will be more complex and competitive than the last. With margins under pressure, deal structures evolving, and managers expanding into new geographies and strategies such as asset-based finance, success will hinge on selectivity, discipline, and operational readiness. Firms that invest in scalable infrastructure, regional expertise, and robust risk management frameworks will be best positioned to navigate changing market conditions and convert opportunity into durable, risk-adjusted returns.













