Analysis

How private debt managers can scale their success by optimizing their operational models

The private debt industry has experienced significant growth during the last decade and has delivered impressive performance throughout the rising interest rate cycle. With forecasts pointing to further increases in private debt assets under management (AUM) in the years ahead, private debt managers will have to upgrade their operational infrastructure to support their rapidly-expanding franchises and better connect front, mid, and back-office functions.


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In what has been a challenging period for alternative investment managers, the private debt asset class has been a standout performer.

According to McKinsey, private debt generated stronger returns than all other private market asset classes in 2023 and was the most resilient for fundraising.

Rising interest rates benefited private debt firms, due to the floating rate structures that gains when base rates climb. This has driven ongoing investor demand for the strategy, proving its ability to deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns across the investment cycle.

The robust performance of private debt strategies through the recent period of market dislocation and uncertainty follows a period of remarkable growth for the asset class.

Private debt assets under management (AUM) have more than quadrupled during the last decade, according to Preqin figures, and currently stand at approximately US$1.6 trillion. And according to BlackRock, the private debt industry is well-positioned to sustain its growth trajectory. AUM forecast is set to reach US$3.5 trillion by the end of 2028 as borrowers continue to favor the bespoke and flexible financing structures offered by private debt managers, and investors, many of which are under-allocated to private debt, move to grow their exposure to the asset class.

Preparing for the next cycle of expansion

For private debt managers, the rapid increase in industry AUM has brought their franchises to an organizational tipping point.

Private debt firms are not only managing larger pools of capital for a more diverse, demanding investor base, but are also executing increasingly complex investment strategies that have expanded beyond bilateral, middle-market loans into big-ticket club deals and opportunistic purchases of debt tranches.

Unlocking capital from a global investor base and expanding deal pipelines into new areas have opened exciting opportunities for managers. However, capitalizing on these prospects will require private debt firms to upgrade their operational infrastructure to sustain their growth.

Managers have not only had to enhance their back-office fund accounting and investor reporting functions to serve an increasingly demanding and sophisticated investor base, but also their middle-office loan servicing and loan administration services to borrowers and the companies to which they lend.

The lean operations that supported private debt through its first phase of expansion will have to be upscaled to ensure that managers can maintain operational nimbleness, and the ability to measure performance while tracking risk, as transaction volumes rise.

Increasing middle and back-office capabilities do pose operational challenges for managers. Staff and technology costs ramp up, while the impacts of additional processes, sign-offs and internal bureaucracy can compromise the agility and responsiveness that have underpinned previous success and growth.

It has also become crucial for managers to establish seamless links between front-office dealmakers, middle-office, and client-facing teams that support borrowers, and back-office teams managing fund accounting and reporting.

Key areas for consideration

As private debt managers enter the next phase of the asset class’s evolution, there are three key questions that should be asked before embarking on an operational overhaul: 

  1. Does integration exist through the front, middle, and back office?

While the oversight and investment management of a private debt fund does have similarities with other alternative asset classes such as private equity and real assets, there are specific deal structuring and fund accounting requirements that are unique to private debt. 

Loan structures, for example, will include multiple tranches, varying rates and payments of principals and interest. Managers must also be able to source and analyze data in markets where public information is less available than in syndicated loan and bond markets. 

The fund accounting required to track and report on private credit portfolios and investments is also vastly different from what is required in private equity portfolios, for example.

As managers expand, it is essential that their accounting and operating teams have the requisite experience to handle the specific demands of private debt fund accounting and reporting. 

It is equally important for private debt managers to have the middle-office capabilities to take loan agency responsibilities, such as for individual investments, handle all trade settlements and interest rate payments, and to administer borrowing bases. 

  1. Outsourcing or in-house? 

Managers must decide if it is best to outsource both back- and middle-office functions as their operations grow or invest in building additional infrastructure in-house.

Keeping operations in-house gives managers direct control of loan operations, fund accounting, and data, which has its advantages, but does come with high upfront costs and makes it more difficult to scale up back-office resources in the future.

Outsourcing to a third-party provider allows managers to benefit from the global reach and extensive industry expertise of fund administration specialists. It is also important to factor in that when a manager ramps up the size of internal teams, the GP bears those costs. In contrast, when outsourcing, the costs of administration are covered by the fund.

If managers do choose to go down the outsourcing route, it is crucial to have clarity on what infrastructure and technology will have to be retained internally to oversee, engage, and interact with a third-party fund administrator.

Managers must also be clear on the scope of work that a loan servicer and fund administrator can handle. Not all partner firms, for example, can deliver portfolio accounting via their loan administration systems.
Managers should be clear on exactly what support they require and whether the administrator can meet that request.

  1. How will data challenges be addressed? 

Data management poses distinctive challenges in a private debt context, as different teams within a firm have different technology and data requirements.

Investor relations teams, for example, want to access performance data to report to LPs, while operations teams prioritize the data requirements of investment professionals and fund accountants want to ensure that books are up to date.

This has seen the asset class move away from single systems, which aim to cover the full loan cycle and serve as a “single source of truth,” to a model where there is an interlinking patchwork of technology platforms and servicing teams.

As data linkages between different operations and teams grow in importance, the middle and back office must become more fluid and integrated.

Ensuring that the data linkages between these teams and their respective technology tools are fully integrated and seamless is complex and impacts how back-office and mid-office functions are structured.

Whether outsourcing or keeping operations in-house, firms must ensure that operating models are structured in a way that aligns the back office and middle office teams and helps to facilitate the “front-to-back” integration required to support multiple complex front office investment management tasks.

Curating an operating infrastructure that covers these priorities and meets the specific demands of each individual private debt manager lays a firm foundation for building a scalable operational model that can grow with a private debt platform. 

The value of a supportive loan servicing and fund administration partner

Transforming an operating model is demanding and can distract managers from their core front office investment management priorities. 

Working with an experienced servicing partner and tech provider like Alter Domus, which has extensive asset class experience, a clear understanding of how private debt managers work, and insight into the key operational priorities they are seeking to address as their organizations grow, eases implementation and ensures that managers are putting the right structures in place. 

We have the resources and expertise to help private debt managers take their operating models to the next level by streamlining processes and harnessing technology, and have supported clients’ operational requirements in the following ways: 

  1. Provision of a full suite of services

Alter Domus provides an end-to-end service to private debt managers that covers every operational requirement, including loan administration, portfolio accounting, loan agency, loan servicing, and fund administration, as well as full data integration across these functions. 

  1. Technology expertise 

Alter Domus has successfully implemented proprietary technology to support all its services. Alter Domus’s Solvas platform, for example, integrates accounting, modelling, and credit risk solutions to serve as our proprietary loan administration system. 

This means Alter Domus can integrate data and operate within a client’s portfolio management system, providing regular reporting and data feeds that allow clients to update their internal accounting systems.  

  1. Data integration 

Alter Domus’s technology expertise means it can also support private debt managers with the design of technology stacks and operating models that support data integration. 

We can help clients to connect the various preferred technology tools of their teams and facilitate the fluid movement of accurate data between different teams and across different technology platforms. This ensures that there is a golden copy of all data throughout the full loan and fund lifecycle. 

Partnering with a firm like Alter Domus can help private debt managers to re-energize their focus on strategic growth and ensure that their support structures are agile and fit for purpose in a private debt asset class that continues to grow, develop, and become more competitive.

Key contacts

Greg Myers

Greg Myers

United States

Global Sector Head, Debt Capital Markets

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ABS EAST 2024


We can’t wait for this year’s ABS East conference in Miami!  Look out for our team and stop by our booth #47! Tim Ruxton will be moderating the panel, North America vs the world: cross-border opportunities.  We look forward to connecting and engaging in the latest industry topics of structured finance. See you in Miami!

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Tom Gandolfo

Tom Gandolfo

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Jamie Loke

Jamie Loke

Singapore

Head of Sales and Relationship Management, SEA

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9th Annual LPGP Connect Private Debt Chicago


David Traverso will be attending the LPGP Connect 9th Annual Private Debt Conference in Chicago.  The event is set to bring together private equity practitioners for a day of knowledge-sharing and thoughtful conversation. He is looking forward to connecting with LPs and GPs to learn the latest. Get in touch if you are there! 

Key contacts

David Traverso

David Traverso

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Managing Director, Sales at Alter Domus North America

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European CLO Summit 2024


Juliana Ritchie, Tim Ruxton, Amit Varma, and Steve Baxter are going to Opal’s European CLO Summit in London, this October 8th! The conference is a hub for everyone involved in private debt and a great way to meet and explore connections and latest techniques to maximize asset returns for clients. 

Key contacts

Juliana Ritchie

Juliana Ritchie

United Kingdom

Head of Sales & Relationship Management, Debt Capital Markets, Europe

Tim Ruxton

Tim Ruxton

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Managing Director, Sales, North America

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Conferences

Landmark CIO Summit



Bringing together senior technology leaders to discuss and debate some of the most relevant issues and trends in the sector, is the Landmark Ventures CIO Summit in New York this September 19th. This off the record discussion is sure to bring insights and honest answers to the toughest questions. Demetry Zilberg, AD’s CTO is speaking on the panel: Infrastructure & Development at 11:30 AM – 12:30 PM, exploring how the modern enterprise has embraced a variety of industry-changing technologies. Say hello if you’re there!

Key contacts

Demetry Zilberg

United States

Chief Technology Officer

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EventsNovember 6, 2024

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Keynote interview

Honing operating models to capture growth opportunities

Greg Myers shared his insights in September’s PDI US Report about how how experience is key in choosing the right operating model


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Interview

Q Given the rapid growth of private credit, what do managers need to consider when shaping their operating models to take advantage of new opportunities?

There are a number of considerations – not only the outsource versus insource question, and which systems and technologies to engage, but also the allocation of costs. Typically, overheads and internal staff are paid for by the management team whereas fund expenses or middle office administrative costs are borne by the funds themselves. Attempting to reach that balance with the right oversight and the correct cost allocations is a challenge, as is how much control you want over the entire system. Oversight and control can take many forms, managers need to ask themselves whether it is enough to have a small staff overseeing a provider, or whether building an entire oversight operation that oversees everything done by a provider would serve their interests better. Similarly, private credit has far more moving parts than exists in bonds or equities. Obviously, the oversight and investment management is similar, but loans are more complex with multiple tranches, different rates and payments of principal and various sources of income that need to be tracked. Added to that, the information ecosystem that exists for broadly syndicated loans isn’t there for private credit, so you may be in a small group of lenders where the data is not easily recovered, creating its own problems.

The choice of operating model also depends on the size of the manager and their level of experience. The infrastructure required for private credit operations and accounting is very different to private equity. In credit, you need the ability to track portfolios that are very dynamic – an entirely different skillset for accounting and operations staff . Investors now typically require a fund administrator, so the question really is what level of infrastructure is needed to engage and oversee your chosen administrator. At Alter Domus, we use a number of systems. We own innovative technology such as Solvas, which offers integrated accounting, modelling and credit risk solutions, alongside a licensed loan administration platform called Sentry. This means we can support from inside a client’s own portfolio management system – integrating data and sometimes even operating from within the client’s systems. All these options feed into our fund accounting systems, which provide managers and investors with regular reports – either on a monthly or quarterly basis. Clients receive data feeds so they can update their own internal accounting systems. Some clients are very light touch and comfortable with an outsourcing model; others run a full internal operations team that tracks what we are doing daily. There is a cost implication to the latter, but we work to what our clients need.

Q What should managers look at when considering outsourcing versus insourcing options?

Not all fund administrators offer portfolio accounting in their loan administration system, but at Alter Domus, we find that it is key to the core team having enough understanding to be able to check daily. Whether you opt to outsource or run your own team, experience is key, something which we have found is getting harder to find amid the talent squeeze that exists within running private credit operations. Finally, I’d highlight the value in an organization’s ability to manage and track data internally and whether they have the requisite software and IT systems that can support substantial data.

Q How can managers maximize opportunities around technology to support their operations?

We have found that a lot more managers opt for co-sourcing arrangements today, meaning we do the work on their systems. They can trust that they have full transparency and access to everything we do, as well as the ability to seamlessly access the underlying data that we work with. This is becoming the preferred model and more commonplace, as managers can achieve greater efficiencies when they don’t have to manage or hire staff – they are making the investment in the technology but not the headcount.

We have completed several successful lift-outs over the past few years when we took on the staff and cost from a client and updated their systems. In doing this, we construct a revenue model that makes sense for the manager, while giving their people a career path that they might not have access to if they stayed at the fund manager. It is much more important to investor today that they have access, through their manager, to all their underlying portfolio data, so it often makes sense for managers to own that IT infrastructure.

Q What should GPs prioritize for data integration?

Within each GP, there is often a struggle between constituencies. Investor relations teams want a whole set of data around performance and what they can put together for investors; operations teams need enough access and availability to analyze data and satisfy investment professionals; the front office wants feedback on performance of the portfolio assets, and the accounting team need to make sure the fund books and internal books of the manager are up to date. There is no single system that does all those things and satisfying all of those constituencies is huge task. Many of our clients will focus on one aspect first before moving forward with others, depending on their own priorities.

Q How are both LP and regulatory demands likely to evolve going forward, and what can managers do to future-proof their approaches?

It is always risky to speculate on this, particularly in the US, given the political backdrop of a presidential election year. What is clear is that there will be an even greater increase in regulation and oversight down the line, as legacy private credit was historically handled by regulated banks and institutions. Despite the overruling of the SEC regulations, we expect an increase in adoption of the practices and disclosures recommended in them, as well as a heightened focus on how private credit operates with investor money being lent to private companies. Understandably, LPs want more and more. The operational data that we help clients prepare for the more sophisticated LPs is increasingly time-consuming, with requirements for everything from information safeguards through to physical office security. The detail required in these requests is also getting more and more granular. Managers need to have a highly robust framework in place to ensure their internal infrastructure can meet those demands. That means thorough change management investment underwriting and oversight processes, and partnering with service providers that have corresponding policies and procedures. Even more investment is going to be needed into compliance infrastructure, or in partnering with others that have made that investment in a way that can be relied upon.

Insights

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AnalysisOctober 24, 2024

How private debt managers can scale their success by optimizing their operational models

Location in Boston
EventsNovember 6, 2024

Private Equity Boston Forum

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AnalysisOctober 21, 2024

How Alter Domus welcomes new teams when providing back-office lift-out solutions to clients

Conference

New York Forum


We are heading to PEI’s PDI New York Forum this September 18-19 in New York. Our Chief Technology Officer Demetry Zilberg will be speaking at the Innovations in Private Credit session and our Global Segment Head of Debt & Capital Markets Greg Myers will be speaking at the Success for emerging managers session.  

Key contacts

Demetry Zilberg

United States

Chief Technology Officer

Greg Myers

Greg Myers

United States

Global Sector Head, Debt Capital Markets

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Location in Boston
EventsNovember 6, 2024

Private Equity Boston Forum

Conference

LMA Loans Market Conference


Join us at the 17th annual Loans Markets Conference held by Loan Market Association this September 17th, in London. Our team will be there to discuss all the development and changes in the private credit markets.  

Key contacts

Juliana Ritchie

Juliana Ritchie

United Kingdom

Head of Sales & Relationship Management, Debt Capital Markets, Europe

Joe Knight

Joe Knight

United Kingdom

Director, Sales, Debt Capital Markets Europe

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Location in Boston
EventsNovember 6, 2024

Private Equity Boston Forum

News

Alternative assets at mid-year

Our sector heads Tim Toska (Private Equity), Greg Myers (Private Debt), Anita Lyse (Real Assets), give their first-half reviews as well look ahead at potential game plans for the second half of the year.


Private Equity in H2 2024: a waiting game

Tim Toska
Global Sector Head, Private Equity


What to watch out for H2 2024:

  • Slower than expected rate cuts have kept the PE industry in a holding pattern for the first half of 2024
  • Secondaries markets and continuation fund deals will remain a crucial source of liquidity through the rest of the year as deal markets adapt to a “higher for longer” rate environment
  • The reopening of the IPO window and a cluster of high-profile sales to strategic buyers raise hopes that exit market are showing green shoots
  • A two-tier fundraising market is emerging as investors waiting on distributions focus new fund allocations on a select band of managers 

The rebound in private equity M&A and fundraising anticipated at the beginning of 2024 has yet to materialize, but dealmakers remain hopeful that momentum will build in the months ahead.

The PE industry entered 2024 on the back of a challenging 24 months where buyout and exit deal value declined for two consecutive years as inflation and rising interest rates drove up deal financing costs, decreased appetite for risk and spark dislocation in pricing expectations between buyers and sellers.

At the end of 2023 hopes built that cooling inflation would lead to a series of interest rate cuts in 2024, the first coming as early as May 2024, but hawkish central banks have been reluctant to cut rates early, with the US Federal Reserve signaling that there may only be one interest rate cut this year.

Deal activity green shoots

Slower than anticipated rate cuts have put the expected rally in PE deal activity on hold, but even though many dealmakers have opted to sit tight through the first six months of the year, buyout and exit activity has shown some early green shoots, putting the market in a better position than it was 12 months ago.

According to White & Case figures, global buyout deal value for Q1 2024 came in at US$165.73 billion, ahead of the US$144.65 billion posted in Q1 2023. Exit value also improved year-on-year, but only marginally, up from US$57.48 billion in Q1 2023 to US$59.17 billion over the first three months of this year.

A rally in equity markets and the reopening of the IPO market have helped to kickstart PE exits back into life, according to Bain & Co, with jumbo IPOs such as EQT’s US$2.6 billion listing of Galderma Group delivering large exits for managers.

There can be no arguing, however, that exit markets will have to build more momentum in coming months to clear backlogs of unsold companies and improve distributions to LPs.

Bain & Co analysis of funds at 25 of the world’s largest buyout firms shows that the number of portfolio companies held by managers has doubled during the last decade. Managers will be hoping that deal markets fully reopen sooner rather than later so that portfolio companies can be exited and distributions to LPs improved.

Flat fundraising

A rise in exit activity and distributions to LPs will be a catalyst for improving fundraising conditions. According to PEI’s Q1 2024 private equity fundraising report, fundraising over the first quarter of 2024 slipped to US$176.7 billion, down from US$195.5 billion in Q1 2023 and the third-lowest quarterly total since 2019.

LPs haven’t turned off the taps completely. EQT, for example, hit the €22 billion hard cap for its latest flagship fund (and largest ever) early 2024, with other blue-chip names including Cinven, BDT Capital Partners and Apax Partners also closing new flagship funds in the first half of 2024.

With a cohort of big names scheduled to wrap up funds that are currently on the road in the coming months, PEI anticipates that fundraising numbers will improve through the course of the year. This, however, does not mean that fundraising is getting any easier, with a two-tier market emerging as investors focus on making allocations to select managers, while other firms have had to spend longer on the road to coral sufficient support.

Alternative liquidity routes provide breathing room

The slower than hoped for reopening of traditional exit markets has been mitigated by steady activity in the secondaries space, which has continued to provided managers and LPs with opportunities to take liquidity and keep the PE ecosystem ticking over.

According to PJT Partners, secondaries deal volume was robust in Q1 2024, climbing by around 20 percent year-on-year as LPs continued to turn to secondaries markets to realize portfolio assets in a low distribution environment.

A surge in exits via continuation fund structures have also provided a welcome source of liquidity, as managers take up opportunities in a flat exit market to put prized portfolio companies into continuation funds that provide investors with the option to take cash proceeds or retain exposure. According to Pitchbook, 27 continuation fund deal progressed in Q1 2024, more than double the 13 continuation funds deals posted in Q1 2023. Some managers also continue to explore other novel options to unlock liquidity for investors, with NAV finance (where managers take out loans against fund assets) one pathway that has been used to fund distributions.

Patience required

Alternative routes to liquidity are expected to remain a busy area of the market through the second half of 2024, but managers who have had assets lined up for sales through traditional exit routes will be hoping that deal markets do finally reopen.

Big exits such as the US$18.25 billion sale of roofing supplier SRS Distribution to The Home Depot by Leonard Green & Partners and Berkshire Partners do point to signs of strategic sales defrosting. With buyout managers sitting on US$1.1 trillion of dry powder, secondary buyout activity will also have to increase eventually.

Deal markets may be a long way off matching the red-hot activity levels and valuations of 2021, but managers will only be able to hold off on new investments and exits for so long.

As stakeholders accept that interest rates will be higher for longer, and recalibrate pricing expectations and risk appetite accordingly, deal markets should fall back into balance and get the PE industry moving in earnest again.

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Private Debt in H2 2024: back to basics

Greg Myers
Global Sector Head, Debt Capital Markets

What to watch out for in H2 2024:

  • Private debt managers will see steady deal flow and opportunities to underwrite deals at attractive yields – but competition is intensifying
  • Loan margins will compress as banks return to market and syndicated loan markets reopen
  • Defaults in private credit will start to climb, putting more pressure on lender portfolios
  • Market consolidation is anticipated as scale becomes increasingly important for deal origination and managing stressed and distressed credits

Private debt has been one of the few beneficiaries of climbing interest rates, but while attractive risk-adjusted returns remain on offer, deploying capital will be more challenging the months ahead.

Through the course of 2023 banks and syndicated loan investors pulled back from underwriting in the face of economic uncertainty and rising interest rates, leaving the way open for private debt funds to gain market share and finance larger tickets. According to Barclays, private debt managers financed 84 percent of US middle market leveraged buyouts in 2023, the highest market share in decade.

Private debt managers have not only gained market share, but have also been able to secure highly attractive risk-adjusted returns. With base rates climbing to above five percent, the typical floating rate structures used in private debt loans have produced yields of around 12 percent, according to analysis from FS Investments, putting the class in a position to produce equity-like turns with lower risk.

Margins compress as competition intensifies

Looking ahead to the rest of 2024 and into 2025, slower than anticipated rate cuts will see private debt managers continue to source deals with attractive yields, but the strong tailwinds that carried the asset class in 2023 will begin to ease.

Peak interest rates coupled with soft landings for the US, and European economies have seen momentum return to syndicated loan markets, with banks and investors moving to regain market share ceded to private debt players during the last 12 to 18 months. US leveraged loan issuance was up 63 per cent year-on-year in Q1 2024, while European leveraged loan markets showed gains of 50 per cent year-on-year for the first quarter, according to White & Case figures.

As syndicated loan markets have reopened, borrowing costs have edged lower, with White & Case reporting tighter margins in both US and European leveraged loan market.

Margin compression has filtered into private debt as managers have encountered more competition. Bloomberg reports that average margins for private debt loans issued during the last 12 months have come down by 0.5 percent when compared to margins on loans issued between one and two years ago.

This is by no means a disaster for private debt (direct lending activity remains robust, and issuance has continued to grow through the course of 2024, but tightening margins do point to narrower yields in a more competitive market where private debt managers don’t have it all their own way.

As competition intensifies, private debt managers are expected to sharpen focus on their core middle-market lending franchises. As the large cap end of the market sees more competition, managers will see more flow in the less liquid middle-market, which more insulated from the resurgence in syndicated loan issuance.

Lending to borrowers with Ebitda of less than US$100 million will be an active and attractive part of the market for private debt managers, as there is less competition from syndicated loans for these smaller credits, giving managers more scope to protect margins.

Dealing with defaults

In addition to navigating more competition and tighter margins, the next 6-12 months are also expected to see private debt funds encounter more stress and default risk in current portfolios.

S&P Global Ratings notes that while deal flow remains abundant for private debt managers, defaults and negative ratings are forecast to climb to multi-year highs in 2024, testing portfolios and returns.

An uptick in private debt default rates would place a natural check on the rapid growth of the private debt industry over the last five to 10 years. Investors allocated more than US$200 billion to private debt from the start of 2021 to the beginning of 2024, according to S&P, growing the industry into a US$1.7 trillion asset class.

This has seen the number of private debt managers proliferate, with Preqin tracking more than 1,300 private debt managers in North America alone. Bank retrenchment, low defaults and high yields have created a ‘goldilocks’ environment for new entrants, but as these favorable drivers moderate, a winnowing of the market is set to follow.

Value of scale to drive consolidation

Established managers with proven track records, who have built platforms of scale, will be well positioned to navigate this shift in market conditions.

Smaller players, however, who do not have the scale and fee income to invest in deal origination and distressed credit workout infrastructure will find it more difficult to source transaction flow and protect portfolio value in a more “normal market”.

Big platforms also benefit for the ability to run multiple strategies, such a distressed debt and specialty lending, alongside direct lending, which is the largest strategy in private credit, but is also the most competitive. Firms with more than one strategy are more diversified and have a wider range of options when it comes to raising and deploying capital across economic cycles.

The emerging bifurcation between large private debt platforms and smaller firms is set to lead to a period of consolidation in the asset class, as smaller managers move to team up with larger private markets peers, and big platforms leverage acquisitions to grow assets under management (AUM) and broaden out into new geographies and investment strategies.

Private debt continues to offer attractive yields and protection against downside risk, but scale and track record will become increasingly important as predictors of manager longevity and performance in the months and years ahead.

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Anita Lyse
Global Sector Head, Real Assets

What to watch out for in H2 2024:

  • Real estate and infrastructure portfolios hold steady in high-rate environment
  • Deal activity and fundraising tepid as anticipated rate cuts decline
  • Fast-approaching debt maturities will absorb GP bandwidth
  • The long-term megatrends of ESG and decarbonisation will drive sustained growth and investment opportunities

Slower than anticipated interest rate cuts have tempered hopes for a revival in real assets investment activity and fundraising in the first half of 2024.

Global infrastructure and energy asset M&A registered a 24.3 percent year-on-year decline in the first quarter of 2024 according to IJGlobal; while JLL recorded a 6 percent year-on-year decline in global real estate direct investment in Q1 2024, and a 34 percent decline on a trailing 12-month period.

Fundraising has been equally challenging, with real estate funds only raising US$19.8 billion in Q1 2024, the lowest quarterly takings since 2011, according to PERE. Infrastructure fundraising performed better, climbing from US$8 billion in Q1 2023 to US$27 billion in Q1 2024, according to Infrastructure Investor. The strong rally in Q1 2024, however, masks what was still the second-worst first quarter for infrastructure fundraising in five years, and the fact that many of the managers that closed funds in Q1 only did so after lengthy periods on the road.


Steady performance and a brightening outlook

Real assets portfolios, however, have sustained steady performance despite the impact of rising interest rates on investment activity and fundraising.

Infrastructure returns have dropped into single digits, according to the CBRE, but have weathered rising interest rates and continued to deliver predictable, low-risk cash flows for investors. Schroders, meanwhile, sees property total returns registering 4% to 5% in 2024, and rising to between 7% and 9% from 2025 to 2029.

Resilient portfolio performance positions real assets managers well to take advantage of opportunities that will arise when M&A markets eventually do reopen.

Even though sticky inflation has meant that interest rates have not come down as quickly, or by as much, as anticipated at the beginning of 2024, there is confidence that rates have now peaked, with rate cuts on the way. The European Central Bank (ECB) has already trimmed rates in 2024, with the Bank of England and US Federal Reserve expected to follow suit in H2 2024.

As rate cuts begin to come through, real estate and infrastructure dealmaking should finally revive, making it easier for managers to sell assets and return proceeds to investors. Increases in distributions will have a positive impact on fundraising, as LPs get back to reinvesting proceeds in the next vintage of funds.

Through this period of low transaction volumes and low fundraising in real assets, managers have also adapted and kept busy by developing real estate and infrastructure debt strategies, forming joint venture partnerships, and executing deals through separate accounts and deal-by-deal arrangements.

Maturity wall looms

Even if real assets M&A markets are set to rally, one looming cloud on the horizon for managers will be refinancing current borrowings as debt maturities come into view.

According to MSCI figures reviewed by asset manager LGIM, around £130 billion of UK commercial mortgages will mature between 2024 and 2026, with the equivalent figure for the US is sitting in the US$1.4 trillion region.

For many issuers, these maturing debt tranches will have been issued at the peak of the credit cycle, when borrowers could take on relatively high levels of leverage at low financing costs. Borrowers that have to refinance will find that borrowing costs are significantly higher, and that the amount of leverage available is down. It will be difficult, then, for investment managers to maintain existing capital structures for their portfolio on the same terms.

This will not necessarily lead to defaults but is likely to see higher financing costs and an uptick in amend-and-extend deals, equity cures, and repricings, which will put strain on cashflows and stretch manager resources.

Going Green

There are certain subsectors within real assets, however, that are expected to ease through near-term refinancing pressures and navigate the transitional period out of the cycle of interest rate hikes.

Infrastructure investments facilitating decarbonization and energy transition have sustained ongoing investor interest through recent periods of market dislocation and are expected to continue enjoying strong investor and lender support through the rest of 2024 and into 2025. 

According to LGIM, countries representing 90% of the world’s population have committed to net-zero targets, and in the US and Europe substantial subsidies have been made available by governments to accelerate the shift.

The long-term, strategic priority placed on net zero by policymakers has seen energy transition emerge as one of the most resilient areas for investment during the last two years.

CBRE notes that the five largest project finance deals in 2023 were all linked to energy transition, while an Infrastructure Investor survey found that renewables ranked as the most popular segment for LP infrastructure allocations.

In real estate, meanwhile, ESG is becoming an increasingly important differentiator, with research from JLL indicating that office buildings with sound green and energy efficiency credentials are able secure higher capital values and rents. Similar trends have been observed in logistics assets, where Savills has found that 90 percent of tenants in logistics real estate are prepared to pay a premium for sustainable buildings.

In a real assets market that is still finding its feet after a period of climbing interest rates, ESG and energy transition will remain the core drivers of fundraising and deal activity, even as other parts of the market spring back to life.

The Real State of Real Estate

The real estate market has offered many challenges in recent years. Here we assess the opportunities beginning to arise and the role of advanced services and technology on your operations.


Key contacts

Tim Toska

Tim Toska

United States

Global Sector Head, Private Equity

Greg Myers

Greg Myers

United States

Global Sector Head, Debt Capital Markets

Anita Lyse

Anita Lyse

Luxembourg

Global Sector Head, Real Assets

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