Join Jamie Loke at the 18th Annual PERE Asia Summit in Singapore, celebrating 20 years of PERE. Alter Domus is excited to share our expertise in integrated global real estate solutions.
Did you know we currently serve 80% of the world’s largest real estate and infrastructure firms? Don’t miss the chance to meet with Jamie and learn more.
Our Chief Operating Officer, Michael Janiszewski, will be speaking at PEI’s Private Funds CFO New York Forum on February 4, from 1:30–2:30 PM, as part of the panel discussion, “Bigger, Bolder, Better: Scaling Your Firm as Private Markets Evolve.” Kenny King, Devin Vasquez, and Darrell Pisarra will also be attending. Stop by booth #26 to connect with our team!
Lizzie Heil, Darrell Pisarra, Conor O’Callaghan, and Devin Vasquez are heading to Miami for the iConnections Global Alts Conference from January 27–30. As one of the largest events in the alternative investments space, it’s an incredible opportunity to explore new ideas and innovations. Be sure to visit us at booth #1552!
Patrick Giovansily, Enkela Kosturi and Joanna Chuda will be at IPEM Cannes this January, 28-30. This is a great opportunity to kick-off 2025, by connecting with fellow private markets leaders- sharing expertise and innovations. If you’re there, do get in touch with them!
After 2024 promises for increased private equity movement failed to materialize, there is a quiet optimism that 2025 will be breakout year for deal activity.
Tim Toska
Group Sector Head, Private Equity
Top private equity trends in 2025:
Improving valuations present a more favorable backdrop for new deals, and crucially exits, in the months ahead
Traditional exit channels are springing back to life and visibility on valuations becomes clearer
Alternative sources of liquidity from secondaries and NAV providers will remain important options for GPs, even as conventional exit volumes rise
Improving exit fundamentals could have a huge impact on fundraising markets, as an uptick in distributions enables LPs to increase deployment into new funds
Hopes that a rebound would swoop across private equity markets in 2024 never quite materialized, but as private equity stakeholders start a New Year, there is a quiet optimism that 2025 will be breakout year for deal activity.
For deep dives into key trends driving the 2025 private equity outlook, read on.
Private equity trend #1: Valuation visibility
Improvement and stability in asset valuations will help to kickstart deal flow in the year ahead. Uncertainty around asset valuations was one of the main reasons for falling buyout and exit deal activity, resulting in a widening delta between vendor and buyer pricing expectations through the cycle of high inflation and rising interest rates.
It has taken time for valuations to respond to the first interest rate cuts registered in 2024, but there are finally signals emerging that private equity firms see asset prices moving higher.
Green shoots have emerged in the growth and venture capital space – one of the first private equity segments to experience the fallout from tightening liquidity, risk aversion and higher capital costs.
In November stalwart venture capital firm Sequoia, for example, a bellwether for the Silicon Valley investment community, marked up the value of its 2020 vintage fund by just under 25 percent. Even though the fund has yet to land any exits, the revised valuation represents a significant pivot in outlook from a market-leading franchise.
In addition to portfolio mark-ups, start-up companies have also encountered a more favorable backdrop for funding rounds. Smart ring start-up Oura, for example, achieved a $5.2 billion valuation in its latest Series D funding round, more than double the valuation secured in a 2022 Series C round, while Moneybox, the digital savings and investment app, almost doubled its valuation in its October 2024 Series D round.
The positive sentiment in the venture and growth equity space has bubbled up to the buyout market. The Argos Index, which tracks the average multiples of private, mid-market European M&A deals valued in the €15m to €500m range, for example, saw average multiples in Q3 2024 rally to 9.5x EBITDA after three years of continuous decline.
Private equity trend #2: Private equity exit channels creak open
A more stable backdrop for valuations has supported an improving outlook for exits, and is momentum is sustained this can unlock a wave of exits in 2025.
According to White & Case Debt Explorer figures, global exit deal value in Q3 2024 was up for the third quarter in a row, with combined exit value of US$94.06 billion representing the highest quarterly exit value in a year. Global exit volume numbers are also looking in encouraging, with the 429 exits posted in Q3 2024 representing the most active quarter for exits since Q3 2022.
GPs are not popping the champagne corks just yet, but there is a sense that asset class can build on this momentum and that the worst of the exit drought may be over.
A GP survey conducted by EY and published in Q3 2024 showed that more than half of GPs (53 percent) expect exits to increase in 2025 – up from 34 percent at the start of the year.
Private equity trend #3: Alternative liquidity
Even as traditional exit pipelines are unblocked, alternative liquidity options will remain a valuable source of liquidity – and distributions – as the private equity market transitions back to a steadier exit pace.
The slowdown in exit activity during the last 24 months has seen GPs explore alternative routes to liquidity in order to expedite distributions to LPs, and even as the exit backdrop improves, these alternative exit routes have proven their viability and will remain a key part of the exit mix.
Continuation funds, for example, where GPs shift selected assets into a separate vehicle, giving incumbent investors the option to either roll their interests into the new structure or take cash, have evolved into an established way for GPs to make distributions without selling prized assets. According to figures from Jefferies, continuation funds accounted for 14 percent of sponsor-backed exit volume in H1 2024 – a record high and a vindication of the continuation fund as a credible route to exit.
Similarly, NAV financing will continue to push further into the mainstream, providing liquidity for sponsors to fund portfolio companies beyond fund investment periods and in some cases make distributions. The increasing use and acceptance of NAV finance has seen the market more than double in size since 2023 according to 17Capital. Growing familiarity and comfort with the product among the GP community will drive ongoing uptake of NAV facilities through 2025.
Private equity trend #4: Unlocking fundraising in the private equity space
Upping distributions to LPs – through both traditional and alternative channels – will be crucial to reigniting a fundraising market that has been stagnant at best.
Pitchbook figures analyzed by EY estimate that 40 percent of the companies held by private equity companies have been sitting in portfolios for more the four years.
With significant pools of LP capital locked up in these assets, it is imperative that managers start to clear the backlog and get the fundraising wheels moving again.
Exits and distributions will have to reach a certain threshold to reignite LP interest in making new allocations, but even though there is still a way to go, there are flickers of light at the end of the tunnel, with LPs starting to talk about potential spinouts and first-time funds for the first time in years.
After a period of prolonged dislocation 2025 is a year for the private equity ecosystem to move back into balance.
Alter Domus cements connections across the Philippines and Asia with a new office in Manila.
Luxembourg and Manila, Philippines, December 12, 2024 – Alter Domus, a leading provider of tech-enabled fund administration, private debt, and corporate services for the alternative investment industry, today announced the opening of its new office located in Bonifacio Global City (BGC), Taguig, the Philippines. This strategic new location in Manila’s growing business hub underscores Alter Domus’s dedication to better serving its clients, improving access to its world-class fund administration services and facilitating collaboration with private markets firms.
The Manila office occupies a full floor of the state-of-the-art workplace located in the Ecoprime building in BGC. Over 100 employees are currently based in Manila, and Alter Domus aims to nearly double its workforce in the city by 2025. The firm is actively recruiting finance and accounting professionals to support this expansion. The office marks Alter Domus’ 39th global location and follows the launch of Alter Domus India earlier in 2024, expanding the organization’s footprint in the Asia Pacific region to 12 offices across seven jurisdictions.
I am thrilled to announce the opening of our vibrant Manila office and celebrate this milestone with our Alter Domus Philippines team. Establishing our presence in BGC enables us to better connect with our clients, strengthen our private markets services and technology and further expand our global reach.
Sandra Legrand, Regional Executive for Europe & Asia Pacific, Alter Domus
About Alter Domus
Alter Domus is a leading provider of tech-enabled fund administration, private debt, and corporate services for the alternative investment industry with more than 5,500 employees across 39 offices globally. Solely dedicated to alternatives, Alter Domus offers fund administration, corporate services, depositary services, capital administration, transfer pricing, domiciliation, management company services, loan administration, agency services, trade settlement and CLO manager services.
Michael Janiszewski shared his insights in December’s PEI Perspectives report about what tools, technologies and support GPs and LPs will need to set them up for 2025.
Michael Janiszewski
Chief Operating Officer
December 5, 2024
Interview
How important is a manager’s operating model to its fundraising success in today’s market? To what extent has this changed and why?
Private markets assets under management have more than trebled to $14.5 trillion over the past decade, according to analysis by Bain & Co. In a climate of increased competition, LPs are placing a growing emphasis on private markets firms’ operating models.
This is in part because LPs have substantially larger pools of capital invested in private markets today. As a result of these larger exposures, they are leaning towards managers with robust operating models in order to limit the downside risk.
At the same time, managers with best-in-class operating infrastructure are better positioned to collect, analyze and harness data to improve deal origination, execution and portfolio company performance. Of course, dealmaking will always remain the core priority for managers, but GPs have come to realize that back-office capabilities and operating models can contribute to front-office success and play an important role in supporting future fundraising.
What areas are LPs scrutinizing in particular? What are the must haves and the red flags for investors doing their due diligence on operating models prior to committing to a fund?
Investors are certainly demanding more when it comes to reporting, compliance and technology. Having the right bespoke operating model in place puts GPs in a better position to differentiate their firms through speedier, more detailed, value-add reporting to investors. In addition, LPs are looking to interact with their GPs in a more digital and data-driven manner, gaining access to information about investments in new and deeper ways.
As well as supporting fundraising, how else can fit-for-purpose, future-proofed back-office infrastructure support front-office activities?
A rigorous back-office capability is essential for GPs who want to offer more co-investment opportunities, take advantage of the liquidity offered through NAV financing, or are considering GP led deals that require solid accounting and reporting frameworks. These are all inherently data-driven activities, which means that the way in which they will ultimately be delivered will be through the use of technology.
What role is technology playing in supporting the modern private equity operating model more generally, and what opportunities does this present?
Technology is undoubtedly playing an ever more important role across the private equity industry. This initially played out in the back office, with various types of financial statement reporting, cash management solutions, as well as workflow and case management tools coming to the fore. Then, in the middle office, we started to see a focus on fund performance and portfolio monitoring, with information being collected across asset classes to support risk management and sophisticated reporting.
Finally, in the front office, technology is now being used to support investment and diligence processes, as well as investor relations. What I think is particularly new and exciting is the proliferation of specialist private markets tools that we are able to leverage today. This is in complete contrast to what was available a decade ago.
It used to be that if an alternatives manager was looking at an aircraft lease, for example, we would have to adapt that into the fund accounting system in the form of some sort of bond. That is no longer the case. Technology now has the language of alternative investing built into it, enabling us to provide different views on risk, better access to data to support superior decision making, and allowing LPs to actively monitor their investments.
The other area where we are seeing significant changes, and where development is primarily driven by LPs, is an enhanced digital experience. It’s still early days, but we are seeing generative AI being used to answer client queries, to leverage large knowledge bases and to respond to requests for proposals. Then, from an operational perspective, optical character recognition is being widely used to make tasks that were historically manual more automated.
Looking ahead, I cannot think of a single operational function where we won’t be using some sort of AI to either extract or manage information differently, or to start drawing conclusions based on that information to support reporting or decision-making, at some point in time.
However, the focus should not just be on AI, but automated machine learning as a whole the process of taking upstream and downstream data and standardising it – given the sheer volumes of financial documents that come into play.
To what extent is artificial intelligence being integrated into digital solutions?
Technology is being used to create great UI, visualization and mobile access, for example. A wide variety of digital interactions – from something as simple as getting a K-1 in the US to performance analysis, cashflow fore[1]casting and benchmarking – have all become, if not the norm, then certainly the expectation for investors. Alternatives have become a much more digital and data-driven industry.
Is the rapid adoption of technology also creating challenges?
I would say the biggest challenge for managers involves data management. While we have made great strides in systems that speak the language of alternatives, we are nonetheless faced with significantly increased demands from clients – both GPs and LPs – when it comes to managing that data. Of course, the cloud has helped us a great deal in that regard, but there is still a lot of hard work involved in operationalizing data that has historically been manually inputted into spreadsheets. Finding ways to ensure that data can be accessed and analyzed in sophisticated ways is something that will certainly be enabled by technology, but there is still some way to go.
The service that an administrator provides reflects directly on the manager. It is a reputational issue for GPs, and therefore for LPs too. LPs are looking to interact with their GPs in a more digital and data-driven manner.
How are all of these developments impacting the decisions that managers are making around what to outsource and what to keep inhouse, and how are third-party providers responding?
Rather than investing large amounts of capital into ever-expanding back-office teams and technology, managers are increasingly working with third-party administrators in order to benefit from the scale, cost advantages and specialized back-office focus. This enables managers to instead invest capex into their core business of dealmaking. In response, fund administrators are evolving their offering from the provision of basic outsourced fund accounting services to providing technology best practices, together with support for managers to enable effective implementation and harness technology in modular operational models.
What is particularly exciting for us is that we are receiving a lot of inbound interest regarding solutions to many of the challenges that I have described. Those enquiries sometimes center on the use of data to support better investment decision-making, for example, or the need to provide different types of information to end clients.
The focus can also be on improving the manager’s cost profile. In short, managers are looking to third parties to fulfil functions that they either can’t or don’t want to invest in at the level that an external provider can. Another driver, meanwhile, is the desire from managers to partner with organizations that are able to glean insight and experience from working with market participants across the entire industry.
As a result, third-party administrators are being approached not only as outsourced service providers but as accelerators for the strategies that their clients are trying to implement.
Is the choice simply between insourcing and outsourcing, or are other models emerging?
Co-sourcing is certainly a trend. That is something that managers are talking to us about and it is something that we have the flexibility to implement. However, I would add that most of those conversations are followed by questions about what our plans are as a third-party administrator to provide some of those functions in a fully out[1]sourced manner.
Co-sourcing is typically seen as a step on the journey towards outsourcing.
What questions should LPs be asking of a potential outsourced provider?
Operational excellence is, of course, incredibly important in this space, because the service that an administrator provides reflects directly on the manager. It is a reputational issue for GPs, and therefore for LPs too. Other sources of differentiation among third-party providers include the degree to which these organizations are investing in their own core systems and operations in order to take advantage of industry trends. GPs should also select an expert partner with firsthand experience in managing processes across multiple strategies and different investment vehicles.
An understanding of cross-jurisdictional knowledge is also vital, should they wish to expand investment beyond their regional boundaries. In addition, LPs should consider the extent to which administrators are investing ahead of the curve, thinking about the next wave of innovation, whether that be generative AI, sophisticated data management or the provision of different ways for LPs to access information.
That kind of forward-thinking approach can help put managers on the front foot when fund[1]raising, and give LPs the comfort that operations are being well run by experienced industry specialists, and that it can scale as their firm grows.
What is your number one piece of advice for a manager re-evaluating its existing operating model with the intention of building something that is sustainable and that will allow it to scale?
My number one piece of advice would be to take time to review the market. I would add that it is also important to understand that the role of the fund administrator has changed.
Today, the right outsourced partner can provide operational support from back-office accounting, all the way through to client services, thereby enabling firms to focus on their own value proposition in a very different and much more sophisticated way.
Tom Gandolfo will be attending Markets Group’s ALTSMIA in Miami this December 4-6. This event will bring together the investor community to deep dive into the latest alternative investment news and developments. We are keen to learn about the latest tips and trends in alternative investments for professionals involved in managing, advising, allocating, and overseeing alternative investments.
Key contacts
Tom Gandolfo
United States
Head of Sales & Relationship Management North America
Rebecca Pearce will be at PEI’s Women in Private Markets Summit this December 4-5 in London. With 800+ industry leaders there, these two days are the perfect opportunity to hear from great women in private equity, grow connections and ways of how to build success in the alternatives industry. Get in touch with her if you’re there!