Analysis

Global infrastructure outlook & market insights for 2025

The infrastructure space is well-positioned for a solid year of deal and fundraising activity in 2025 as interest rates subside and macro-economic conditions improve.


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Global infrastructure outlook trends in 2025

  • The data center and decarbonization mega-trends will animate infrastructure fundraising and deal activity in 2025 
  • Significant opportunities will emerge in building out utilities and power provision to support the data center boom    
  • Signs of a soft landing after the rising interest rate cycle bodes well for toll road, airport and port assets 
  • After a tough year for managers, fundraising sentiment should improve as sliding base rates drive up investor appetite for yield

The infrastructure space is well-positioned for a solid year of deal and fundraising activity in 2025 as interest rates subside and macro-economic conditions improve. 

As has been the case for other private markets asset classes, 2024 has been a challenging year for infrastructure. Annual fundraising is at risk of falling below 2023 levels, according to Infrastructure Investor, while CBRE has recorded declines in year-on-year infrastructure M&A during 2024

The next 12 months are likely to remain challenging and unpredictable for infrastructure managers and investors – after all, infrastructure fund dry powder has recently hit a record 24% of total global AUM, according to Preqin, indicating managers’ caution to deploy. But falling interest rates will help to put the asset class in a more stable position. 

For deep dives into key trends driving the 2025 global infrastructure outlook, read on. 

Infrastructure investment trend #1: Fundraising on a firmer footing

Fundraising activity will derive potentially the greatest benefit from lower rates, as investors emerge from the defensive crouch of the last 24-36 months and resume the search of yield as interest rates come down. 

Infrastructure will be ideally placed to serve investors as they gradually look for opportunities to take on more risk, as it offers returns at a premium to the risk-free rate while retaining defensive, inflation-resistant qualities, according to asset manager ClearBridge Investments. For investors who are still wary of downside exposure as economies emerge from a period of high inflation and rising interest rates, but have to sustain yields, infrastructure will be an ideal fit. 

The 2025 infrastructure vintage also holds the potential to deliver attractive returns for investors. 

ClearBridge Investments analysis shows that over the long-term infrastructure asset returns correlate strongly with infrastructure asset earnings growth. Since 2022, however, a recalibration of risk and valuations across all asset classes has seen infrastructure asset valuations drop even though earnings growth has proven resilient. This delta between earnings and valuations will fall back into the long-term pattern, presenting early movers with an opportunity to invest at potentially highly attractive entry multiples. 

Infrastructure investment trends #2: Going green and going digital

Fundraising and deal activity in infrastructure will be driven by the two mega-trends that dominated the asset class during the last 24 months – decarbonization and data centers. 

Both subsectors are underpinned by robust underlying fundamentals and have experienced little if any impact from recent capital markets dislocation. 

Decarbonization and targets to reduce emissions to net zero by 2050 have become compliance and regulatory essentials for all sectors, with regulators mandating higher energy efficiency standards and disclosure on emissions.  

The cost of building out new, green, low emission infrastructure, as well as repurposing existing legacy infrastructure assets will involve substantial resources and investment. According to S&P Global estimates $5 trillion of annual investment in energy transition will be required every year between 2023 and 2050 to meet Paris Agreement emissions reductions goals – triple current levels  

Governments will be unable to shoulder this obligation alone, opening up an investment opportunity of vast scale for infrastructure players. 

The fundraising market is already pivoting in this direction, with renewable energy fundraising the largest category for sector-specific infrastructure fundraising in 2024, according to Infrastructure Investor. And the deals are following suit – per Preqin’s Infrastructure Global Outlook, renewable energy accounted for 69% of primary deals in 2024 – its highest share since at least 2006.

Decarbonization will not be a one-way street, especially as the costs of energy transition are felt by taxpayers and consumers, pushing decarbonization into the political sphere. Nevertheless, the fact that decarbonization can also address other long-term energy pain points, such as cost of energy and energy security, gives the net zero project the necessary momentum to withstand any political or consumer resistance. The risks posed by climate change are simply too severe for governments to ignore. 

In the data center space, meanwhile, similarly robust fundamentals will power sustained investment opportunities. 

Demand for data is surging, particularly given the huge amounts of computing power that will be required to support the rapid growth of the AI sector, which private markets platform Partners Group forecasts will grow at a remarkable compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42 percent  to become a $1.3 trillion market by 2032

Investors and dealmakers have been racing to gain exposure to this dynamic sector, via both equity and debt investment strategies. The scramble for data centers shows little sign of slowing in 2025. 

Infrastructure investment trend #3: Classic categories. New opportunities

But while data centers and decarbonization will grab the headlines (and with good reason) 2025 also promises to be a good year for more established infrastructure categories. 

Indeed, as data centers grow so will the core utilities required to service them, most notably power generation. According to McKinsey, the power generation capacity required to support electricity-hungry data centers will have to more than double by 2030. Grid connection capacity will have to be ramped up in similar increments. 

Outside of utilities, other sub-segments such as airports, toll roads and ports are also set for a positive 2025, as the inflationary pressures that have weighed on consumer spending start to ease, and travel activity and demand for goods increases. 

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA) global air passenger numbers are forecast to exceed 5 billion in 2025 for the first time, while global container volumes passing through ports are expected to climb by as much as 7 percent in 2025, according to shipping and logistics group Maersk. Toll road traffic is also expected to increase, particularly in centers with growing populations, with usage on most routes now back at or above pre-pandemic levels

New verticals may be expanding the options and growth opportunities for infrastructure stakeholders, but “old-fashioned” infrastructure assets look set to remain as attractive and valuable for investors as ever. 

The full scope of private capital outlooks

To read about the trends driving all private capital asset classes through 2025, check out the other articles in our Outlooks series. 

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Private equity outlook 2025

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Private debt outlook 2025

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Real estate outlook 2025

Key contacts

Anita Lyse

Anita Lyse

Luxembourg

Global Sector Head, Real Assets

Gregori Mike

Michael Gregori

United States

Real Estate Operational Leader, North America

Analysis

Real estate: outlook for 2025

Real estate is in a much stronger position than it was 12 months ago, but while the asset class is set to rally in 2025, the road to recovery will be uneven and complex.


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Key trends in 2025’s real estate outlook

  • Lower interest rates will ease the pressure on real estate investors in 2025, but the rebound in real estate deal activity will be uneven 
  • The sector continues to grapple with secular shifts in the market following pandemic. Opportunities will arise but risk lingers 
  • Data centers, logistics and the living sector present the most compelling near-term investments, but there is value to be found in other verticals 
  • Real estate players still have to manage a large wall of debt maturities. This will be a challenge, even as interest rates recede

Real estate is in a much stronger position than it was 12 months ago, but while the asset class is set to rally in 2025, the road to recovery will be uneven and complex. 

The good news for the sector is that as near-term interest rates have cooled and stabilized, so have real estate valuations, with asset manager abrdn noting that the pricing corrections that weighed on the sector through the rising interest rate cycle appear to have run their course.  

As valuations stabilize, returns are set to improve, with abrdn forecasting annualized global all-property total returns of close to 7 percent for the next three and five-year periods. 

For deep dives into key trends driving the 2025 real estate outlook, read on.

Navigating real estate’s recovery in 2025

Navigating the real estate recovery, however, will not be straightforward, even as the macro-economic fundamentals improve. 

The sector is still in the midst of a period of reconfiguration following pandemic lockdowns, which has driven large, secular shifts in usage patterns.  

Remote working and AI, for example, have had a profound impact on office real estate assets, which continue to encounter headwinds even as large corporates lean on employees to return to the office. Retail is another real estate sub-sector that has been challenged following the pandemic, and then the squeeze on consumer spending as inflations and interest rates climbed. In the two-years following the first pandemic lockdowns, retail vacancy rates climbed to new record levels in some jurisdictions as rents saw drops of more than 10 percent

Other real estate verticals, however, have thrived. Private markets investment platform Partners Group notes that living and logistics assets have benefitted from long-term secular growth drivers and constrained supply, while the data center space has gone from strength to strength.  

In the US alone, the colocation data center market has doubled in size during the last four years, defying the rising rate cycle to continue meeting surging demand for data and digital infrastructure to power AI and digitalization. 

The rub for real estate investors as they move into 2025 is that real estate remains bifurcated and complicated market. There will be a recovery in pricing and deal activity, but there are still banana skins that investors will have to avoid. 

Balance sheet housekeeping is still a key real estate focus 

In addition to trying to read the real estate rune sticks, investor bandwidth will also continue to be absorbed by existing portfolios, for which large amounts of refinancing are imminent in the next four years. 

According to Trepp data analyzed by asset manager Franklin Templeton around US$1.2 trillion of commercial real estate debt will mature in 2024 and 2025, with a further US$1.7 trillion falling due between 2026 and 2028. 

Falling interest rates and lower debt costs will ease refinancing pressure to a degree, as will stabilizing pricing, which will support more favorable loan-to-value ratios.  

However, even though interest rates have eased in 2024 and are expected to continue moving in favor of borrowers in 2025, base rates remain materially higher than they have been for years and will test capital structures put in place prior to the rising interest rate cycle. 

Even as the wider real estate market shows green shots, there will simultaneously be pockets of distress in the sector in 2025 as borrowers battle to service debt costs while base rates remain elevated relative to the prior cycle. 

Amid a 2025 real estate outlook, risk remains – but opportunity beckons 

Against a background of looming maturities and market bifurcations, investors are likely to continue leaning into the most robust and fastest growing real estate segments, with the red-hot data center space leading the charge. 

There will, however, be a window of opportunity for savvy investors with solid operational track records as well as sector and regional know-how to lean into less popular real estate segments and invest in high quality assets attractive valuations. 

Retail real estate, for example, which has been struggling and out-of-fashion for years, appears to be turning a corner as global retail sales recover.  

JLL notes that in key jurisdictions such as the US, vacancy rates in high-quality retail locations are approaching record lows, with tenants jumping at opportunities to lease new space as it becomes available. Not all locations will see an uplift, but prime space is well placed to generate attractive returns. 

The office segment, which looks challenging overall, also presents opportunity for investors and developers that can identify sites in the right location and price risk effectively. According to JLL, office vacancy rates are forecast to peak in 2025 with availability for high demand locations falling. The narrative around offices may still be broadly negative, but early movers who pick the right assets will see the potential in 2025 vintage deals. 

Real estate risk will continue to linger in 2025 – but so will new opportunity. 

The full scope of private capital outlooks

To read about the trends driving all private capital asset classes through 2025, check out the other articles in our Outlooks series. 

technology data on boardroom screen plus people in meeting

Private equity outlook 2025

technology data on screen pencil in hand scaled

Private debt outlook 2025

architecture bridge traffic

Infrastructure outlook 2025

Key contacts

Anita Lyse

Anita Lyse

Luxembourg

Global Sector Head, Real Assets

Gregori Mike

Michael Gregori

United States

Real Estate Operational Leader, North America

News

Alter Domus launches office in Manila

Alter Domus cements connections across the Philippines and Asia with a new office in Manila.


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Luxembourg and Manila, Philippines, December 12, 2024 – Alter Domus, a leading provider of tech-enabled fund administration, private debt, and corporate services for the alternative investment industry, today announced the opening of  its new office located  in Bonifacio Global City (BGC), Taguig,  the Philippines. This strategic new location in Manila’s growing business hub underscores Alter Domus’s dedication to better serving its clients, improving access to its world-class fund administration services and facilitating collaboration with private markets firms.

The Manila office occupies a full floor of the state-of-the-art workplace located in the Ecoprime building in BGC. Over 100 employees are currently based in Manila, and Alter Domus aims to nearly double its workforce in the city by 2025. The firm is actively recruiting finance and accounting professionals to support this expansion. The office marks Alter Domus’ 39th global location and follows the launch of Alter Domus India earlier in 2024, expanding the organization’s footprint in the Asia Pacific region to 12 offices across seven jurisdictions.

I am thrilled to announce the opening of our vibrant Manila office and celebrate this milestone with our Alter Domus Philippines team. Establishing our presence in BGC enables us to better connect with our clients, strengthen our private markets services and technology and further expand our global reach.

Sandra Legrand, Regional Executive for Europe & Asia Pacific, Alter Domus

About Alter Domus

Alter Domus is a leading provider of tech-enabled fund administration, private debt, and corporate services for the alternative investment industry with more than 5,500 employees across 39 offices globally. Solely dedicated to alternatives, Alter Domus offers fund administration, corporate services, depositary services, capital administration, transfer pricing, domiciliation, management company services, loan administration, agency services, trade settlement and CLO manager services.

Media contact: [email protected]

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Keynote interview

Fit for the future

Michael Janiszewski shared his insights in December’s PEI Perspectives report about what tools, technologies and support GPs and LPs will need to set them up for 2025.


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Interview

How important is a manager’s operating model to its fundraising success in today’s market? To what extent has this changed and why?

Private markets assets under management have more than trebled to $14.5 trillion over the past decade, according to analysis by Bain & Co. In a climate of increased competition, LPs are placing a growing emphasis on private markets firms’ operating models.

This is in part because LPs have substantially larger pools of capital invested in private markets today. As a result of these larger exposures, they are leaning towards managers with robust operating models in order to limit the downside risk.

At the same time, managers with best-in-class operating infrastructure are better positioned to collect, analyze and harness data to improve deal origination, execution and portfolio company performance. Of course, dealmaking will always remain the core priority for managers, but GPs have come to realize that back-office capabilities and operating models can contribute to front-office success and play an important role in supporting future fundraising.

What areas are LPs scrutinizing in particular? What are the must haves and the red flags for investors doing their due diligence on operating models prior to committing to a fund?

Investors are certainly demanding more when it comes to reporting, compliance and technology. Having the right bespoke operating model in place puts GPs in a better position to differentiate their firms through speedier, more detailed, value-add reporting to investors. In addition, LPs are looking to interact with their GPs in a more digital and data-driven manner, gaining access to information about investments in new and deeper ways.

As well as supporting fundraising, how else can fit-for-purpose, future-proofed back-office infrastructure support front-office activities?

A rigorous back-office capability is essential for GPs who want to offer more co-investment opportunities, take advantage of the liquidity offered through NAV financing, or are considering GP led deals that require solid accounting and reporting frameworks. These are all inherently data-driven activities, which means that the way in which they will ultimately be delivered will be through the use of technology.

What role is technology playing in supporting the modern private equity operating model more generally, and what opportunities does this present?

Technology is undoubtedly playing an ever more important role across the private equity industry. This initially played out in the back office, with various types of financial statement reporting, cash management solutions, as well as workflow and case management tools coming to the fore. Then, in the middle office, we started to see a focus on fund performance and portfolio monitoring, with information being collected across asset classes to support risk management and sophisticated reporting.

Finally, in the front office, technology is now being used to support investment and diligence processes, as well as investor relations. What I think is particularly new and exciting is the proliferation of specialist private markets tools that we are able to leverage today. This is in complete contrast to what was available a decade ago.

It used to be that if an alternatives manager was looking at an aircraft lease, for example, we would have to adapt that into the fund accounting system in the form of some sort of bond. That is no longer the case. Technology now has the language of alternative investing built into it, enabling us to provide different views on risk, better access to data to support superior decision making, and allowing LPs to actively monitor their investments.

The other area where we are seeing significant changes, and where development is primarily driven by LPs, is an enhanced digital experience. It’s still early days, but we are seeing generative AI being used to answer client queries, to leverage large knowledge bases and to respond to requests for proposals. Then, from an operational perspective, optical character recognition is being widely used to make tasks that were historically manual more automated.

Looking ahead, I cannot think of a single operational function where we won’t be using some sort of AI to either extract or manage information differently, or to start drawing conclusions based on that information to support reporting or decision-making, at some point in time.

However, the focus should not just be on AI, but automated machine learning as a whole the process of taking upstream and downstream data and standardising it – given the sheer volumes of financial documents that come into play.

To what extent is artificial intelligence being integrated into digital solutions?

Technology is being used to create great UI, visualization and mobile access, for example. A wide variety of digital interactions – from something as simple as getting a K-1 in the US to performance analysis, cashflow fore[1]casting and benchmarking – have all become, if not the norm, then certainly the expectation for investors. Alternatives have become a much more digital and data-driven industry.

Is the rapid adoption of technology also creating challenges?

I would say the biggest challenge for managers involves data management. While we have made great strides in systems that speak the language of alternatives, we are nonetheless faced with significantly increased demands from clients – both GPs and LPs – when it comes to managing that data. Of course, the cloud has helped us a great deal in that regard, but there is still a lot of hard work involved in operationalizing data that has historically been manually inputted into spreadsheets. Finding ways to ensure that data can be accessed and analyzed in sophisticated ways is something that will certainly be enabled by technology, but there is still some way to go.

The service that an administrator provides reflects directly on the manager. It is a reputational issue for GPs, and therefore for LPs too. LPs are looking to interact with their GPs in a more digital and data-driven manner.

How are all of these developments impacting the decisions that managers are making around what to outsource and what to keep inhouse, and how are third-party providers responding?

Rather than investing large amounts of capital into ever-expanding back-office teams and technology, managers are increasingly working with third-party administrators in order to benefit from the scale, cost advantages and specialized back-office focus. This enables managers to instead invest capex into their core business of dealmaking. In response, fund administrators are evolving their offering from the provision of basic outsourced fund accounting services to providing technology best practices, together with support for managers to enable effective implementation and harness technology in modular operational models.

What is particularly exciting for us is that we are receiving a lot of inbound interest regarding solutions to many of the challenges that I have described. Those enquiries sometimes center on the use of data to support better investment decision-making, for example, or the need to provide different types of information to end clients.

The focus can also be on improving the manager’s cost profile. In short, managers are looking to third parties to fulfil functions that they either can’t or don’t want to invest in at the level that an external provider can. Another driver, meanwhile, is the desire from managers to partner with organizations that are able to glean insight and experience from working with market participants across the entire industry.

As a result, third-party administrators are being approached not only as outsourced service providers but as accelerators for the strategies that their clients are trying to implement.

Is the choice simply between insourcing and outsourcing, or are other models emerging?

Co-sourcing is certainly a trend. That is something that managers are talking to us about and it is something that we have the flexibility to implement. However, I would add that most of those conversations are followed by questions about what our plans are as a third-party administrator to provide some of those functions in a fully out[1]sourced manner.

Co-sourcing is typically seen as a step on the journey towards outsourcing.

What questions should LPs be asking of a potential outsourced provider?

Operational excellence is, of course, incredibly important in this space, because the service that an administrator provides reflects directly on the manager. It is a reputational issue for GPs, and therefore for LPs too. Other sources of differentiation among third-party providers include the degree to which these organizations are investing in their own core systems and operations in order to take advantage of industry trends. GPs should also select an expert partner with firsthand experience in managing processes across multiple strategies and different investment vehicles.

An understanding of cross-jurisdictional knowledge is also vital, should they wish to expand investment beyond their regional boundaries. In addition, LPs should consider the extent to which administrators are investing ahead of the curve, thinking about the next wave of innovation, whether that be generative AI, sophisticated data management or the provision of different ways for LPs to access information.

That kind of forward-thinking approach can help put managers on the front foot when fund[1]raising, and give LPs the comfort that operations are being well run by experienced industry specialists, and that it can scale as their firm grows.

What is your number one piece of advice for a manager re-evaluating its existing operating model with the intention of building something that is sustainable and that will allow it to scale?

My number one piece of advice would be to take time to review the market. I would add that it is also important to understand that the role of the fund administrator has changed.

Today, the right outsourced partner can provide operational support from back-office accounting, all the way through to client services, thereby enabling firms to focus on their own value proposition in a very different and much more sophisticated way.

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Conference

PERE America Forum


Stuart Wood will be moderating the panel ‘The private real estate credit revolution’ at this year’s PERE America Forum.  Michael Dombai and Rachel Roth will also be there- get in touch if you’re there! This conference will be the ideal real estate gathering to connect with fellow industry partners and learn about the latest global strategies.

Key contacts

Stuart Wood

Stuart Wood

United States

Managing Director, Sales, North America

Michael Dombai

Michael Dombai

United States

Managing Director, Sales, North America

Rachel Roth

Rachel Roth

United States

Managing Director, Sales and Relationship Management, Private Equity

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Conference

NCREIF Fall Conference 2024


Stuart Wood, Stephanie Golden and Michael Dombai are attending the NCREIF Fall conference in Florida.  The NCREIF conference is a great opportunity to discuss all matters, trends and insights across real estate. They are excited to learn more about how to incorporate the latest data and trends into effective strategies.    

Key contacts

Stuart Wood

Stuart Wood

United States

Managing Director, Sales, North America

Stephanie Golden

Stephanie Golden

United States

Managing Director, Sales, North America

Michael Dombai

Michael Dombai

United States

Managing Director, Sales, North America

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Conference

Expo Real 2024


Dirk Sanden, Angela Summonte, Peter Klinkner, and Mark Gebauer will be heading to EXPO Real in Munich- Europe’s largest real estate network. The team are excited to dive deeper into the entire real estate process and speak to peers about investment opportunities.

Key contacts

Angela Summonte

Angela Summonte

Luxembourg

Group Director, Key Accounts

Mark Gebauer

Mark Gebauer

Germany

Country Executive Germany

Dirk Sanden

Dirk Sanden

Luxembourg

Director, Sales & Relationship Management

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Conference

ALFI Private Assets Conference


Angela Summonte and Enkela Kosturi will be attending the ALFI Private Assets Conference in Luxembourg this September 26th. They are looking forwards to discussing market trends and regulatory developments, as well as the tools for sustainable growth. Get in touch if you are there!

Key contacts

Enkela Kosturi

Enkela Kosturi

Luxembourg

Director, Sales & Relationship Management

Angela Summonte

Angela Summonte

Luxembourg

Group Director, Key Accounts

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Conference

The 12th Annual Real Estate CFO & COO Forum (East)


Ned Siegel and Lizzie Heil will be in New York this September 23rd attending the IMN Real Estate CFO/COO conference.  They are excited to speak to their fellow real estate investment leaders about the latest trends and developments in capital strategies and fund administration. Reach out to Ned and Lizzie to hear more.

Key contacts

Ned Siegel

Ned Siegel

United States

Managing Director, Sales and Relationship Management, Private Equity

Lizzie Heil

Lizzie Heil

North America

Managing Director, North America

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Conferences

13th Annual Distressed Forum for Bank Special Assets (Midwest)


John Budyak will be at IMN’s Distressed Forum for Bank Special Assets (Midwest) in Chicago this September 23-24. This is the top forum for bank special asset professionals to connect and discuss the latest happenings in the credit market. Connect with John today to discuss the CRE market and more. 

Key contacts

John Budyak

John Budyak

United States

Head of Credit Services, North America

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